Global Warming is Nuclear War
The average global surface temperature rose by 1°C during the 110 years between 1910 and 2020.
During the 50 years between 1910 and 1960, the average global temperature rose by 0.25°C, an average rate-of-increase of 0.005°C/year. Another 0.25°C of biosphere heating occurred during the 25 years between 1960 and 1985, a rate-of-rise of 0.010°C/year. During the 20 year span between 1985 and 2005 another 0.25°C of temperature was added, a rate-of-rise of 0.0125°C/year. During the 15 year span from 2005 to 2020 another 0.25°C of temperature rise occurred, with an average rate-of-rise of 0.0167°C/year.
While the average temperature rise of 0.25°C was the same for each of the four intervals, the first (between 1910 and 1960) required 45.5% of the 110 years between 1910 and 2020; the second (between 1960 and 1985) only required 22.7% of the 110 years; the third (between 1985 and 2005) required the smaller fraction of 18.2% of the 110 years; and the most recent period (between 2005 and 2020) took the smallest fraction of 13.6% of the 110 years.
Given that a 1°C rise of the temperature of Earth’s Biosphere (EB) is the equivalent of it absorbing, as heat, the energy yield of 109 billion Hiroshima atomic bomb explosions, we could imagine the EB being bombarded by an average of 1 billion Hiroshima bombs per year between 1910 and 2020 (within 109 year-long intervals). If that yearly bombardment were done uniformly, it could represent 2 Hiroshima bomb explosions per square kilometer of the Earth’s surface once during the year; or it could represent one Hiroshima bomb explosion per day in each 186 km^2 patch of the Earth’s surface, for a worldwide bombing rate of 2.74 million/day. Global warming is very serious!
Let’s refine this analogy so it reflects the acceleration of global warming since 1910.
The 27.25 billion Hiroshima bomb equivalents of heating that occurred between 1910 and 1960 would represent a bombing rate of 545 million/year; or 1.5 million/day spaced out at one daily explosion per 342 km^2 patch of the Earth’s surface.
The 27.25 billion Hiroshima bomb equivalents of heating that occurred between 1960 and 1985 would represent a bombing rate of 1.09 billion/year; or 3 million/day spaced out at one daily explosion per 171 km^2 patch of the Earth’s surface.
The 27.25 billion Hiroshima bomb equivalents of heating that occurred between 1985 and 2005 would represent a bombing rate of 1.36 billion/year; or 3.73 million/day spaced out at one daily explosion per 137 km^2 patch of the Earth’s surface.
The 27.25 billion Hiroshima bomb equivalents of heating that occurred between 2005 and 2020 would represent a bombing rate of 1.82 billion/year; or 5 million/day spaced out at one daily explosion per 103 km^2 patch of the Earth’s surface.
The heating rate for the 1°C temperature rise of the EB since 1910, averaged on a yearly basis, was 5.725×10^24 Joules/110years, or 5.2×10^22 Joules/year, or 1.65×10^15 Watts of continuous heating. This rate of heat storage by the EB (into the oceans) is only 0.827% of the continuous “heat glow” given off as infrared radiation by the EB (mainly at the Earth’s surface), which is 1.994×10^17 Watts at a temperature of 288.16°K (Kelvin degrees; an absolute temperature of 288.16°K = 15°C+273.16°C; absolute zero temperature occurs at -273.16°C).
If we were to imagine impulsively infusing the EB with the same amount of energy, by a regular series of “heat explosions” each of energy release equivalent to the Hiroshima bomb, then the 1 billion explosions per year (the 109 year average) would have to occur at a rate of 31.7 per second.
Atomic bombs release their energy explosively within 1 microsecond, representing a radiated power of 5.25×10^19 Watts for an energy release equivalent to the Hiroshima bomb yield (5.25×10^13 Joules). In this hypothetical exercise, I am lumping all the atomic bomb explosive yield into heat, but in real atomic explosions energy is released in a variety of forms: heat, nuclear radiation (gamma rays, energetic neutrons, X-rays, radioactive material) and blast pressure. The energy forms emitted by atomic bomb explosions ultimately heat the materials they impact and migrate through, and this is why I lump all of the bomb yield as heat.
An explosion sphere with a 56.4 centimeter diameter (22.2 inches) radiating heat at 5.25×10^19 Watts during a burst time of 1 microsecond would present a 1m^2 surface area at a temperature of 5,516,325°K = 5,516,051°C. Imagine 32 of these popping into existence at random points around the world during every second of the day and night since 109 years ago. We would certainly consider that form of global warming a crisis deserving our attention.
Because the invisible low temperature heat glow style of global warming that we actually experience does not rudely punctuate our lives with random blasts of such intense X-ray conveyed heat that any human standing nearby would simultaneously be vaporized while the molecules of that vapor were atomized and those atoms stripped of all of their electrons down to the atomic cores, we ignore it. But the heating effect on the biosphere is energetically equivalent to what we are causing with our greenhouse gas and pollution emissions.
Thermodynamically, we have greenhouse gas-bombed out of existence the pristine biosphere and its habitable climate that first cradled and nurtured the infancy of our species 2000 centuries ago, and then fed and protected the development and growth of that fragile chimera we call “civilization,” which our potentates have been proudly boasting about for at least 8,000 years. And we’re still bombing, now at an ever increasing rate.
All of the numbers quoted here come out of the results described in my report “A Simple Model of Global Warming” that I produced to help me understand quantitatively the interplay of the major physical effects that produces global warming. I invite both the scientists and the poets among you to consider it.
70% or less of the sunlight shining onto the Earth reaches the surface and is absorbed by the biosphere. From this absorbed energy, in combination with the presence of water and organic material, all life springs. The oceans, which cover 70.2% of the Earth’s surface and comprise 99.4% of the biosphere’s mass, form the great “heat battery” of the planetary surface. All weather and climate are generated from the heat glow of that battery. A portion of that heat glow, equivalent to the solar energy absorbed, must escape into space for the planetary surface to remain in heat balance, at a constant average temperature. For that temperature being 15°C (59°F), 62.31% of the heat glow must escape.
30% or more of the incident solar energy is reflected back into space, with 24% of that reflection by clouds, and 6% of that reflection from land and ocean surfaces. While snow and ice are the most nearly perfect reflective of such surfaces, they only cover 10% to 11% of the planet and that coverage is slowly being reduced by global warming, increasing the solar heating.
Our introduction of greenhouse gases and pollution particles into the atmosphere has added to the already existing load of naturally emitted humidity, organic vapors and grit from volcanic eruptions and windblown dust. These components of the atmosphere absorb and retain heat (infrared radiation), blocking some of the necessary heat glow loss, and thus warming the planet. The increasing accumulation of these components — because a warmer world has higher humidity producing more clouds, and because of our continuing emission of atmospheric pollutants — scatter an increasing portion of the incoming sunlight back into space, which is a cooling effect called “global dimming.” The imbalance of all these effects is dominated by warming and the biosphere’s temperature is rising at an accelerating rate.
My life is a race against the clock of a certain though indeterminate finality. The COVID-19 pandemic has made me very conscious of this inevitability. After seven decades of existence I cannot do everything I want, in terms of living, fast enough. This is not irrational terror, it is awakened appreciation and understanding. There is all of Shelley yet to read, and Keats, and so many more; and so many more birds and flowers, and daylight and nighttime beauties of the Nature to see, and so many more differential equations and physical problems to solve, to not want to go on living. The urge for continuation is innate, genetically programmed, whether in robotic virus particles or in cognitive life forms like cats and human beings. For me, that cognition includes the irrational emotional desire to combat global warming so that future generations of all Earth’s life forms have decent chances of continuing.
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For Example #5
at t = 110 years (year = 2020):
5°C of heating relative to year = 1910,
4°C of cooling relative to year = 1910,
+1°C net in favor of heating relative to year 1910.
Total Thermal Action = 5°C + |-4°C| = 9°C, (relative to year = 1910).
55.55% of total thermal action = heating, (relative to year 1910).
|-44.44%| of total thermal action = cooling, (relative to year 1910).
Offset of thermal actions = 55.55% – |-44.44%| = 11.11% in favor of heating, (relative to year 1910).
The imbalance of all the thermal actions = 11.11% in favor of heating, relative to year 1910.
Now at Counterpunch:
A Simple Model for Global Warming
[from after the weblink to the math model, down]
1 June 2020
Now at Counterpunch:
Global Warming is Nuclear War
[from the top to before the weblink to the math model]
2 June 2020
I estimate that if all global warming stopped immediately, it would take 9,863 years for the oceans to lose their energy/heat content equivalent for 1°C (the accumulated excess between 1910 and 2020, a fraction of 3.47×10^-3 of the “original” heat content at 288.16°K), by heat diffusion up from depth and out the surface at sea level into the atmosphere; and the depth from the surface that would experience that cooling (heat diffusion out) would be 217.5 meters. The e-folding (e^-1 = 0.37) time for temperature equilibration of the entire ocean depth (3,689 m, average) is 2,837,068 years, the time for heat diffusion (from bottom to top) to first be experienced throughout the entire depth (with 37% of the original heat content diffused away, presumably into a 0°K “atmosphere”). The thermal diffusivity of seawater is 1.52×10^-7 m^2/s = 0.152 mm^2/s. This means that the climate up to the very early 20th century will not reoccur for at least ~10,000 years, and doubtless much longer. Based on studies (by paleo-climatologists) of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), that “relaxation time” is closer to 150,000 to 200,000 years, but for +4°C to +8°C, at least, (it could easily be more since data is not refined enough to distinguish and doubling is quite possible, so: 12°C?, 16°C?) warming (by CO2 in the atmosphere). If we did magically halt all global warming (i.e., stop increases in atmospheric CO2, CH4, and pollution grit) instantly, then our climate would be similar to the “old” climate but decidedly worse: more intense rain storms (hurricanes-typhoons, flooding, wind) and more intense droughts (more desertification), and slightly higher sea levels, and modifications to the polar vortex (jet-stream), because of a hotter and much defrosted Arctic pushing it “out” (latitudinally southward) and deforming its original nearly circular shape, which would bring colder winters (and more snow and ice) deeper south where that polar vortex plunged southward (e.g., Eastern North America, maybe Western Europe), and wetter hotter winter-springs (e.g., Western and Northwestern North America) where (longitudinally) that polar vortex flowed north (and drew warm moisture north from the temperate western Pacific), and hotter summers, drought, where the polar vortex flowed north at land-covered longitudes (e.g., Eastern Europe).