One Year of Global Warming Reports by MG,Jr
Over the last year, I have posted a series of reports on global warming climate change that address it in a quantitative physics, rather than qualitative and sociological manner. Those reports are listed below in chronological order. My estimation of what global warming “will look like” in the immediate and longer term future was refined over the course of producing these reports; but they are all of-a-piece on the topic.
The first report is primarily “data” for subsequent calculations (and very important). The two PDF reports are my mathematical physics notes on my calculations (the first of these being most significant). The other five are applications of the numerical results for descriptive purposes — to help the general reader understand the magnitude and duration of the global warming effect.
A number of these reports found their way onto Internet Magazines, most significantly Counterpunch, and Green Social Thought.
The versions on my blog have had minor numerical and/or typographical errors corrected (as I find them), and are followed by my comments of subsequent thoughts, with more physics on them just after they were posted.
My sociological recommendations about “what to do about climate change” are summarized in one brief paragraph at the end of Biosphere Warming in Numbers.
My purpose in doing this work should be obvious; first, for me to understand, quantitatively, the nature of global warming; and, secondly, to help “you” to understand it.
I welcome comments and questions on the topic; after all it was such inquiries that prompted me to look into this topic (scientifically) more deeply in the first place.
Please also note, I do NOT dispute the work of professional geophysics/climate change scientists, who work at climate change institutes of various kinds around the world (e.g., meteorological, geological, atmospheric physics and chemistry, oceanographic, biological/ecological/evolutionary sciences), and who use banks of supercomputers to model the many complexities of global warming and climate change (with numerous such complexities still beyond current science’s grasp).
Ye Cannot Swerve Me: Moby-Dick and Climate Change
15 July 2019
A Simple Model of Global Warming
26 May 2020
Global Warming is Nuclear War
28 May 2020
Living With Global Warming
13 June 2020
No emissions with exponential decay of CO2 concentration: Model
18 June 2020
Global Warming and Cooling After CO2 Shutoff at +1.5°C
20 June 2020
Biosphere Warming in Numbers
3 July 2020
Carbon Dioxide Uptake by Vegetation After Emissions Shutoff “Now”
8 July 2020
Global Warming and Ocean Acidification Accelerate
Ocean Heat, From the Tropics to the Poles
1 August 2020
The Improbability of CO2 Removal from the Atmosphere
9 August 2020
ClimateSIM Junior, Simplified Prognostication from Unrealistic Hypothesis
16 August 2020
Facing Extinction, My View
2 September 2020
Possible Future Trends of CO2 Concentration and Global Temperature
7 September 2020 (revised 9 September 2020)
The above (a brief summary) includes a web-link to the big report below.
A Rate Equation for Accumulation or Loss of Atmospheric CO2
5 September 2020 (revised 9 September 2020)
Major improvement on the above
Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Are Fate
12 September 2020
For those interested in the technicalities, see
A Carbon Balance Model of Atmospheric CO2
11 September 2020
Reducing CO2 Emissions to Reverse Global Warming
17 September 2020
Global Warming Burps, Bubbles, Simmers and Sours On
24 September 2020
Another Model of Atmospheric CO2 Accumulation
5 October 2020
The CO2 and Temperature of the PETM
2 November 2020
The following is from this excellent source of data:
CO2 and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Cumulative CO₂ emissions by world region, 1751 to 2017
the total CO2 emitted to date (from 1750, before which there was ‘none,’ to 2017) is 1540 giga-tonnes (1.54 trillion tonnes).
I calculate that there are 1090 giga-tonnes (1.09 trillion tonnes) in the atmosphere now (2020). So the oceans have absorbed:
(1540-1090)/1540 = 29%
and the atmosphere retains
1090/1540 = 71%.
I recall wikipedia stating that the oceans had absorbed 28% (in articles on CO2 in the atmosphere, and on CO2 storage in the oceans).
CO2 emission by fuel type, World
36.44 billion tonnes of CO2 were emitted (cumulative of types of fuel) in 2018.
That is 9.938 billion tonnes of CARBON (ratio 12/44 times above).
The the casual estimate of 10 billion tonnes C emitted per year (in recent years) is an accurate characterization (also from wikipedia).
Thank you, Manuel, for keeping your hand on the world’s pulse. Do keep those reports coming. BB